Swat outlook ‘pretty bleak’: Kilcullen

* US strategist says Pak military has no counterinsurgency capability

LAHORE: Pakistan’s campaign against the Swat Taliban has only a limited chance of success, a counter-insurgency expert has warned.David Kilcullen, hailed as a key strategist behind the US success in Iraq, has said outlook for the operation is “pretty bleak” given the army’s inexperience and its refusal to accept help from the west. Kilcullen has been a leading adviser to Gen David Petraeus, the head of US Central Command.In an interview with the Financial Times, Kilcullen said he doubted Pakistan could succeed. He added that the failure would endanger the international mission in Afghanistan by cutting off NATO supply routes. Capability: “The Pakistani military has no capability for what we would call counterinsurgency,” he said. “What they are doing in the Swat valley is a conventional offensive ... they need a more sophisticated approach and they need training and assistance, which they are currently refusing.”“They will move into Swat, they will fight the Taliban, there will be half a million refugees, there will be immense dislocation. I’m not sure that, looking back on this in six months, we will see any improvement.” Kilcullen said the situation in Pakistan was central to NATO’s Afghan mission. The strategist also warned that US drone strikes in the Tribal Areas were counter-productive. “They have an undeniable benefit…but have a negative strategic effect” as they incited militancy, he said.