BBC map illustrates Taliban spread

* Research suggests only 38 percent of NWFP, FATA under firm government control

* Says there is high likelihood of increase in Taliban militancy in 47 percent of Punjab in near future

LAHORE: A map produced by the BBC suggests that only 38 percent of the NWFP and the FATA is under firm government control.

The army is currently trying to reclaim part of the region from the Taliban. The report the map was based on covered the 24 districts of NWFP and the seven tribal agencies and six frontier regions of the FATA. The researchers analysed reports from BBC Urdu correspondents over the past 18 months, backed up by conversations with local officials, police officers and journalists. They concluded that in 24 percent of the region the civilian government no longer exercised authority. Either the Taliban were in complete control or the military was engaged in operations to flush them out. Another 38 percent of the region was deemed to have a permanent Taliban presence, meaning they had established bases restricting local government activities and seriously compromising local administration. In these areas – three FATA and 11 NWFP districts – the Taliban carried out periodic attacks at will on girls’ schools, music shops, police stations and government buildings. Considering the region is notorious for its lack of law and order, the researchers applied certain rules to differentiate Taliban activity from general lawlessness: The incidents had to be of a recurring nature, there had to be an official recognition of Taliban presence, Taliban must have appointed local “commanders” and there must be functional religious schools sympathetic to the Taliban in the area. The research also indicates areas to which researchers believe Taliban-style militancy might spread. Likelihood: The report found that, based on current perceptions of religiously motivated violence, there was a high likelihood of an increase in Taliban militancy in the near future in 47 percent of the Punjab. BBC’s Barbara Plett as well as independent observers warned against overstating the existence of a unified insurgency.

(Daily Times Monitor)