New political set-up on the anvil

By Rauf Klasra

ISLAMABAD: Quiet preparations have begun to give shape to a new political set-up, sometime after the federal budget is passed in June, and several new “Sharifuddin Pirzadas” have been put to work to produce a blueprint, which will take care of constitutional and legal issues that may arise to bring about a major change.

Senior politicians and even government office holders privately admit that things are not working out for the PPP government and some change has to come. I even heard from one PPP source that a political storm was “heading our way”. Some backdoor channels have also being opened with the judicial establishment to make it understand the need for another “doctrine of necessity” of sorts, this time in the name of national security threats, which are clearly visible to everybody in the shape of the extremist Taliban, unrelenting politicians and unstopped corruption.

Nawaz Sharif, the seasoned politicians believe, holds the key to the new set-up. There is a mature realisation in some top PPP circles that Nawaz Sharif had acted wisely and saved the system on March 16 by calling off the long march despite the fact that conditions were ripe to fold the system.

Final touches to overthrow Zardari using the long march were being given, just in case it was needed. But a careful Nawaz refused to offer his shoulders to get rid of Zardari as he thought a politician was preferable to other trying to oust him.

But within the last two months Nawaz appears to have undergone a huge transformation, as he is finally getting convinced with the new logic of forces quietly trying to get rid of Asif Ali Zardari. The constant contacts through backdoor channels have apparently paid off and Nawaz was coming around. This was one strong reason why, despite the best efforts of Prime Minister Gilani and others, Nawaz was not ready to allow his party ministers to rejoin the Gilani cabinet. By his refusal, Nawaz was sending a loud message to all the concerned quarters that he was not interested in continuation of the present arrangement at Islamabad.

According to those working on the blueprint of a new regime, names and details of these people cannot obviously be disclosed, the National Assembly and provincial assemblies may be dissolved and a national government may be installed. Some establishment quarters having soft corner for PM Gilani were backing him as the new head of this national government of 20 ministers of reputation from different walks of national life. The new regime may last for a year or so during which a huge military operation might be launched against the Taliban, and those, who were involved in corruption, might also be taken to the task.

After one year, new elections may be held and if Nawaz Sharif emerges as a majority party leader, he may be given the chance to become prime minister. The establishment may not directly involve itself in the new set-up, but it would offer strong support to it. The names of the likely 20 ministers, according to those who know, are being finalised. Passage of the new budget is awaited as is always done in such cases.Washington is also soft towards such an option as Asif Zardari has greatly annoyed the powers that are said to be quietly collecting evidence about any corruption in Islamabad and Sindh. Asif Zardari, many believe, is operating in total isolation as he had greatly annoyed his friends both at home and abroad.

Likewise the Saudi rulers having strong influence within the Pakistani establishment were seriously annoyed when he openly started not only defying them, but also started coming closer to its traditional enemy, Iran. The major irritant for the Saudis after the sacking of the Sharif government in Punjab was Zardari’s new love for relationship with Iran, as they feared it would revive the influence of Iran within Pakistan, and this is where the Saudis were concerned.

Likewise the Americans, who supported Zardari and had preferred him to Musharraf, had to send a loud message recently when they realised that Pakistani politicians were incapable of dealing with the Taliban. The Swat deal was the turning point when the foreign friends of Zardari decided to distance themselves from his policies. This controversial deal, which was struck on the insistence of the establishment, was said to have paid dividends now, as Zardari had lost his friends both at home and abroad. President Zardari also knows about the political storm heading towards him and is desperately trying to lure Nawaz into a new deal to survive. But Nawaz has been burnt many times with his smiles and charm. He is now making new demands and Zardari believes even if he scrapped the controversial 17th Amendment and executed the main clauses of the Charter of Democracy, Nawaz would still not join the government at the Centre.

Nawaz is more interested in new elections as he could not wait for five long years for his return to power. He has already moved the Supreme Court to get his sentence set aside and he is expecting to get relief from the judges.

Many believe Zardari has actually sealed his own fate when on the wrong advice of his cronies he let Nawaz quit the government last year without realising the damage it had done to the political system.Circles close to the president rejected the report on any move to change the government. They said Zardari's image was tremendously enhanced after he restored the deposed judges fulfilling the will of the people. They said all the misunderstandings of the US about the president have been removed. That is why, they said, the US leaders, including Special Envoy for Afghanistan and Pakistan Holbrooke, have lauded anti-terrorism efforts being made by President Zardari. They said there is no substance in the claim that the Saudi rulers are angry with the president. They said Zardari enjoys excellent relations with the Saudi government.

(Footage of this man was shown on ARY TV channel in this condition)